Big government? High taxes? A University of Central Florida economist says Florida lawmakers’ aversion to both could prolong the state’s recovery from the financial crisis and dampen future growth.

According to a 30-year economic forecast released today by Sean Snaith, director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness, Florida “scores” among the lowest of its 49 counterparts in several key economic indicators, including overall tax burden, expenditures and the number of government employees.

Despite some lawmakers’ concerns about the recent growth of federal government, Snaith says Florida leaders shouldn’t be afraid to expand state government and should stop gutting much-needed programs and institutions vital to the state’s long-term survival.

“We just went through a legislative session where, instead of raising taxes to plug some of the budget shortfall, we further gutted funding of higher education and pulled more teachers from the classroom,” Snaith says. “One of the rallying cries for this short-sighted policy decision was that taxes are ‘too high’ and government is ‘too big.’”

Also noteworthy in Snaith’s forecast are his predictions about statewide unemployment. Jobless numbers released Friday from the state showed Florida’s unemployment rate at 10.2 percent -- the highest since October 1975, when unemployment hit 11 percent.

Snaith doesn’t expect Florida’s jobless numbers to go down anytime soon. He says it will take until 2018 to return to the 2008 unemployment rate average of about 6 percent.

“The state’s labor markets will serve as a lasting reminder of the economic ordeal that Florida has been through,” he said. “Years after the recession officially ends, our unemployment rate will be the unsightly scar on Florida’s economy that refuses to fade.”

Snaith’s forecast offers predictions through 2039 for Florida and its 12 metropolitan regions. Those areas are Naples, Daytona Beach-Deltona, Gainesville, Ocala, Lakeland, Palm Bay-Melbourne, Pensacola, Miami, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Tampa Bay and Orlando.

Long-term forecasts help decision makers in the public and private sectors plan future projects. “That’s why we produce a 30-year forecast annually,” Snaith says. “Transportation planners, school districts, developers, utilities and others need a picture of what Florida’s economy will look like decades from now.”

Snaith’s entire forecast is available at http://www.iec.ucf.edu.

Other highlights in the report include:

-- The only two sectors forecasted to average positive growth during 2009-12 are education and health services (2.2 percent) and professional and business services (2.1 percent).

-- Housing starts will climb at a very slow pace. In the last quarter of 2012, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, coming in at 166,000 starts at an annual rate.

-- Retail sales will contract for the first half of 2009. During the second half of the year, Florida consumers –- still punch drunk from the painful combination of home equity stock market losses –- will start spending cautiously. From 2010-12, retail sales will steadily accelerate and grow at an average pace of 5.8 percent as consumer spending returns, fueled by pent-up demand.

-- Real Gross State Product will remain negative in 2009 and continue to decline until growth reappears in the second quarter of 2010. Growth will accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2012.

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

Snaith is also a member of several national forecasting panels, including the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast panel, the National Association of Business Economics Quarterly Outlook Survey Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Today Economic Survey Panel. Blue Chip named him the most accurate forecaster for California in 2007.

The UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness' mission is to expand public understanding of the economy by convening business leaders, scholars, policy makers, civic groups and media to discuss critical issues.

Snaith is also the host of "Money Talk$ America," a show produced by UCF TV that aims to break down complex issues into digestible news about subjects as diverse as interest rates, the job market and the cost of food. Watch episodes at http://www.ucftv.ucf.edu/shows/money_talks/.